Hello there, Fellow Learner—and Welcome to!a Learner's Digest edition of Business Games, an educational series where we help you improve your strategic and critical thinking, make sense of the world and make better decisions under uncertainty.This is episode "2022 and 11/12-ths".I wish 2022 were better, but it's not.Which, in a way, only underscores the importance of strategic thinking, good decision-making under uncertainty, interpreting weak signals, and everything else we've discussed to date on Business Games.In a minute, there'll be an explanation for my hiatus.But first, housekeeping…New PricingWrapped Up Experimental SeasonHiatus ExplanationNext Steps

How I Lost Trust in the Western Mainstream Media and What to Do About It.This is a "voice-over" of the first half of the NY Disinformation article available here: NY Times: Disinformation Central?Subscribe to our NEWSLETTER here: Business GamesContentI've done something different this time: instead of reading the script, I went through this article and did a "voice-over" of the first half (the NYT takedown + Summary) for the pod—the timestamps correspond to the parts where I go through these.IntroThe Primary Purpose of This Takedown of NYT [03:14]Part 1: The "Russian Disinformation" Campaign [06:00]Part 2: 2014 v 2022 Narrative Change [24:48]Donbass Defenders from 2014 and Bitterness Towards Kyiv Killing Donbass CiviliansThe NYT Nazi Disappearance Act: "Dangerous Nationalists" From February, 2022 Become "Kremlin Propaganda" by July, 2022NYT Guest Writers: From "My Family Members Hated the Neo-Nazis and the US-Backed Kiev Government" to "Euromaidan Uprising Demanding Partnership With the EU"Part 3: Verifiable Lies as Exemplified by the "Systemic Rape as a Weapon" Hoax [41:09]Part 4: NYT Nepotism and Hit Jobs [56:03]Summary [1:00:05]

A word of caution: if you have an emotional response to the 2022-ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and especially if you believe the mainstream media narrative in the West and you are not ready to have this challenged, this might not be for you.I'm happy to discuss the facts and my thinking, but I'd like to refrain from ad hominem attacks.Finally, I have an agenda:I'm trying to challenge your thinking in order to strengthen it. To do so, I'll present to you my way of analysis, the signals I use, and the questions I pose. I will build a narrative that may or may not be your narrative (certainly, isn't the mainstream western punditry narrative) and I will try and defend this narrative using evidence. You may or may not agree—my job is to make you think, and to help you think better.I'm trying to influence people to find a helpful, lasting peace solution for the benefit of common Ukrainians—in my opinion, the current western position is neither correct in its narrative nor helpful for this goal. This requires a separate investigation.I wrote a more personal note with my history as a Ukrainian in the previous newsletter post 2022 and 11/12-ths.This topic by its nature will most likely be the most controversial we touch on.Recently, I wrote the blog post NY Times: Disinformation Central? Or: How I Lost Trust in the Western Mainstream Media and What to Do About It, in which I investigate the New York Times in their mis-representation of facts on 4 counts: "Russian disinformation" campaign, changes of the narrative on Ukraine and Donbass from 2014 through to 2022, outright lies such as the (fake) claim of "massive rapes" propagated by the former Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Denisova (who was fired by the Ukrainian Government for this lie), and protecting the NYT ownership while running hit jobs on competitors.Read the post OR listen to the previous episode to get the full picture about the NY Times transgressions.In this newsletter episode, I take parts of the NY Times piece and expand the principles I use when reading the news and processing information.If you're OK with the above, let's go.ContentPreviously on Business Games Re: Information Processing [03:18]Narrative Versus Reality: You Are Being Manipulated [07:14]How Much of a Problem Is It? [08:55]A Dozen Thinking Principles I Use [11:56]Frame of Reference = The Most Important FactorOn Sources of Information [40:55]Is Wikipedia a Good Source? [41:20]Alternative Journalists to Follow on Ukraine and Beyond [43:50]Conclusion

2014 Maidan, 2022 Mariupol and Bucha. One is a proven false-flag massacre perpetrated by the Ukrainian far-right. The others fit similar patterns. Having already made a case for why this is not a coincidence, I discuss further implications.Here, I give more background to my Mariupol & Bucha: Narrative v Reality article, how it came together, and what makes me confident about the conclusions.The text version of this Newsletter episode with all the links is here: False Flags, False Narratives.Subscribe to our free newsletter or support our analytical and educational work with a paid subscription at one of the two prices (you choose the price, they both have the same benefits): Normal Premium or Student (Recession-Proof).ContentFalse Flags: Censoring Peer-Reviewed Academic Study as a "Political Decision" [00:00]False Narratives: War Crimes [04:32]Guilty Until Proven Innocent [09:16]Critically Thinking [18:52]Who Shot at the Mariupol Humanitarian Corridors [21:28]What Really Happened in Bucha [25:22]Conclusion [32:35]

In the modern discourse it seems, any political opponent is immediately a "Nazi", and any historical grievance is a "genocide".The problem is obvious and three-fold:Politically, the elites in a less wealthy and/or numerous nation want to use the victimhood status to gain potential reparations from the wealthier/more numerous nation, by any means possible—all's fair in love and war;The impacts on the (wrongfully) accused are also clear: accusing various historical governments of (alleged) genocides smears their modern successors as well as the whole nations, thus dehumanizing them in a way;And in turn, overusing such terms as "Nazi" and "genocide" cheapens these and diminishes the crimes of the actual Nazis, creates possibilities for denial of actual genocides such as the Holocaust or the Armenian Genocide, and whitewashes the Nazi revival such as various neo-Nazi movements.I can think of no example more insane than the whitewashing of the Ukrainian Nazi collaborators Bandera and Shukhevich, their organizations OUN and UPA, and their modern Ukrainian equivalents such as Azov, S14, and the Right Sector—and at the same time bringing out all the decades of smear campaigns against the USSR and Russia, accusing them of multiple genocides.Though maybe "Holodomor" myth is at least equally insane.Russophobia deserves its own post, and so do the Ukrainian Nazis both historical and modern. For now, I'll look at genocide accusations against the historical and modern Russias.ContentGenocide as a Weapon of Propaganda [00:00]Modern Days: 2022+ "Genocide" of Ukrainians [09:42]Goebbels Propaganda Rules and Brand Management [20:42]Russia's "History of Genocides" [32:17]Circassian "Genocide" [37:09]"Holodomor" as a National Foundation Myth [56:20]Final Thoughts [1:12:11]

In this episode, I'd like to address the brand image of LinkedIn, censorship, and pose a question: What's the point of LinkedIn?As usual, feel free to disagree with my position—but please, listen through to the end, it won't be long.Content1. What's the Point of LinkedIn? [03:09]1.1 LinkedIn's Purpose [03:11]1.2 A LinkedIn Problem [04:54]1.3 Damned If You Don't, Damned If You Do [06:50]2. LinkedIn's Misinformation Policy [11:12]3. My Posts on Bucha and Mariupol Humanitarian Corridors [13:22]4. Does LinkedIn Know What They Are Doing? [16:27]5. Go Get a Lawyer [29:35]6. Let's Ponder Free Speech and the Law [32:59]7. Let's Ponder Censorship and Brand Value [36:53]8. Conclusion [48:41]Full Text:https://www.business-games.ai/the-linkin-lawyer-unprofessional-network/

ContentKyle and I pick 1 topic each to rant about and a 3rd one to discuss:AI: Media coverage of the poisonings of the Iranian schoolgirls [01:25]KC: Media coverage of the Mexican electoral institute reform [17:38]KC & AI: Change of the media narrative on the Ukraine conflict [27:00]Author ProfilesKyle C Twitter: @KyleDChurchAI Telegram: @BusinessGamesAIAI Twitter: @BusinessGamesAILinksIran investigating after 650 school girls suffer 'mild poison' attacks | Newshub; 1 March, 2023Dozens of schoolgirls in Iran taken to hospital after poisoning | The Guardian; 2 March, 2023Hundreds of Schoolgirls Fall Sick in Iran, and Officials Suspect Poisoning | NY Times; 1 March, 2023Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning | ABC; 5 March, 2023Are Iranian schoolgirls being poisoned by toxic gas? | BBC; 4 March, 2023No, AMLO Is Not Undermining Mexican Democracy | Jacobin; March, 2023Avoiding a Long War — U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict | RAND Corporation; 2023

Why propaganda? How propaganda? and What can you do?One of the most important dialogues I've ever had a chance to be a part of.Oliver goes into detail about provable propaganda in Hollywood and the (predominantly) US media, with examples from US lead-up to conflicts in Iraq (twice), Syria and Ukraine coverage, as well as Russiagate. We also touch on modern leadership and Russophobia.Iraq, in particular, is a fantastic example of learning how the propaganda game is played, because the truth is already accepted knowledge.Transcript and content with timestamps to follow.

PSA: a quick overview of where we're at + starting Dialogues: why "Dialogues", a bit about propaganda, a bit about economics, a bit about Skripal.Website: Starting Dialogues on Business Games

Johnny Miller talks about:being influenced by Noam Chomsky,good and bad mainstream journalism,working for Iranian Press TV,propaganda,choosing and turning down stories and projects,working in Syria, Libya, Burma, Africa, …… and Ukraine—especially 2014 Maidan in Kiev, 2014 Anti-Maidan in Donbass, and 2022 Donbass,genuine protests and not,Portaloo availability as protest success predictor,coming under Kyiv shelling in Donetsk,ethnic hatred,the whitewashing of Nazis,being on Mirotvorets "kill list" together with Donbass children,the Western sanctioning of journalists,being careful not to spread propaganda.Link to the episode on BG: www.business-games.ai/she-knew-it-was-gonna-succeed-when-she-saw-the-portaloos-being-installed

Chay Bowes is an Irish entrepreneur and an independent journalist, and has an MA in Strategy & GeoPolitics. His @BowesChay Twitter slogan is: "Facts should define the Narrative, the Narrative shouldn’t define the facts."I spoke to him in 2022, after he wrote an article on the Absolute Truth called War Propaganda About Ukraine Starting to Wear Thin and before he wrote An Inevitable War..His article about the Absolute Truth was recommended and retweeted by none other than John Pilger.

Talking to Esha of Historic.ly about imperialism, communism, Bernie Sanders, Republicans vs Democrats, AOC, and her first days in & impressions of Russia...LinksEsha Substack: Historic.ly | Esha | Substack (historicly.net)Esha YouTube: Historic_ly - YouTubeMy joint episode with Esha on H YT channel many months later: TAKEDOWN: Kyiv Independent pro-b&ndera Video with AI - YouTubeWhat Do the World Bank and IMF Have to Do with the Ukraine Conflict?History of Ukrainian Land from 1000 to 2016 on YouTube

Business experimentation is NOT only for tech firms. Why, When, and How do we run business experiments? Yes, even for your portable toilet business.Originally planned to be 1 week later, now dropped within the same week as the Overall Intro.Next week, The Experimental One starts—Yay!—but in this episode, I talk about the choice of Business Experimentation to start this educational podcast + newsletter with. We get into many of the building blocks around game theory and business, our two main foci—and how business experimentation helps you make better decisions under uncertainty.We'll see after The Experimental One if my bet on starting like this—rather than jumping into the deep end with Nash Equilibria and such—paid off. As I said on the last episode, we'll build towards The Gamey Theoretical One as we go along.It's an experiment in itself!Contents1. Welcome to! Business Games! [00:06]2. Exec Summary / Abstract [00:41]3. The Basic Premise [01:37]3.1 The Topic [01:37]3.2 The Context(s) [02:47]3.3 The Approach [05:01]3.4 Two Words about Interviews [06:48]4. What You Should Expect in Season One (the Experimental One) [09:48]4.1 S01e01 JP Castlin x2 (Public + Premium) [10:54]4.2 S01e02 Professor Ananish Chaudhuri x2 (Public + Premium) [15:42]4.3 S01e03 Dawie Olivier x2 (Public + Premium) [20:23]4.4 S01e04 Melissa Clark-Reynolds ONZM x2 (Public + Premium) [22:45]4.5 S01e05 Ashlee Berghoff x2 (Public + Premium) [25:20]4.6 S01e06 Rory Sutherland x2 (Public + Premium) [29:57]4.7 S01e07 Lit Review [32:56]4.8 S01e08 Bonus Discussion Episode with JP Castlin (Public) + Season Overview + Thoughts (Premium) [36:56]4.9 S01e09 Season One Mailbag Episode (Premium) [37:38]5. The Homework [38:14]The Lit ListRead this fun article, first: Disney is playing a bigger game in its box office battle with Scarlett Johansson (marketingweek.com)Want to Make Better Decisions? Start Experimenting (mit.edu)Building a Culture of Experimentation (hbr.org)Avoid the Pitfalls of A/B Testing (hbr.org)“The Power of These Techniques Is Only Getting Stronger” (hbr.org)Why Business Schools Need to Teach Experimentation (hbr.org)Experimentation Works: The Surprising Power of Business...

How should you think about prediction and measurement success. An introduction.A quick Newsletter-ish episode.ContentsSchedule of episode “drops”PredictionsMeasurementsHow do you listen to podcasts? Would you like a full transcript?LinksSubscriptions About Business Games (Premium)Companion to Business Games Newsletter: The Opposite of “Measurement Is Impossible” Is Not “You Can Measure Everything!”—Predicting & Measuring SuccessNBA Finals Prediction Article On Decisions, Predictions, Betting Markets, and Los Angeles Lakers v Brooklyn Nets 2022 NBA Finals in October 2021!Prof Byron Sharp’s LinkedIn post hereWhy Marketers Should Be Wary Of ‘High ROIs’ #DigitalSense by Jerry Daykin

JP Castlin on Complexity, what it means for your business, and how to deal with it via safe-to-fail experimentation.Originally planned to be Episode 1 of Season 1 (as per audio), becomes S02e02 because we now have 2 full intro episodes and can't have Episode 0 or Season Zero on the podcast platforms.Next week, we'll talk about Experimental Economics—but in this episode, JP Castlin talks to us about complexity, how understanding complexity is relevant for running a business, and how it all relates to experimentation.About Business Games: www.business-games.ai/about/ContentsAdd ~1 min to the timestamps after 11th minute mark.Introduction [00:00]On Complexity: A Primer [03:55]On Systems: In Nature and Organizations—Ordered Clear, Complicated, Complex, and Chaotic [04:38]A Marketing Example of a Dispositional System [06:14]…and a Chaotic System [06:53]On Experimenting in Different Kinds of Systems [07:09]On Two Types of Uncertainty: Epistemic (Knowledge-based) and Aleatory (Inherent and Irreducible) [08:11]On Contexts and More on Quantum Mechanics Vs Newtonian Physics [12:02]On How to Deal with Uncertainty in Complexity [13:49]Fail-safe Vs Safe-to-fail: Marvel Vs Blumhouse [15:15]Experimentation in Various Contexts [19:13]Online Vs Offline, and Operational Efficiency Vs Strategic Choice [20:28]On Eternal Boiling, Premature Convergence, A/B Testing, and Local Optima [23:46]System Has Its Own Behaviour: Ants and Colonies [26:52]Strategy and (Equi-) Probability [27:53]On Not Getting Disheartened [30:58]On Boundary Conditions, Company-specific Metrics, Scaling and Dampening [31:57]On Corporate Versus SME, Small Versus Big [34:28]On Product Versus Service [36:40]On Services, Complexity, Causality, and Defensive Decision-making [39:24]On the Value of Consultants in Complexity [46:12]On Cost-out Versus Value-add, Start-ups and Scaling [49:36]On Start-ups and Proprietary Data [51:09]On Deliberate Versus Emergent Strategy [52:54](More) on How to Deal with Complex Problems in Practice [55:02]The Homework [57:39]JP’s Own Work as It Relates to Experiments, Strategy, and Complexity [01:00:17]On the Key Takeaways: Both Jokingly and Seriously [01:07:18]On Emotions in Experimentation [01:10:24]Links to JP’s WorkSubstack: Strategy in Praxis https://strategyinpraxis.substack.com/WWW: JP Castlin https://jpcastlin.com/Twitter: @JPCastlin https://twitter.com/JPCastlinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpcastlin/MarketingWeek:

What do Pornhub calculus and Jurassic Park experiments have in common? Listen to find out!Emergent: endorsements, behaviour, Pornhub calculus, and Jurassic Park experiments. #3Go Premium Here: Business Games Subscribe (business-games.ai)

What do Devil's Advocates, information cascades, egos, and gender pay equity have in common? Find out here as Prof. Ananish Chaudhuri introduces experimental economics. Part 1/2Prof. Chaudhuri introduces behavioural and experimental economics [04:38]; talks about how to start experiments by using existing published knowledge, first [12:25]; carrots & sticks versus intrinsic motivation [14:37]; wisdom of the crowd versus information cascades [29:30]; HR and gender pay equity [16:58]; individual versus group decision making [33:46]; electronic betting markets [35:43]; egos and buy-in [38:08], and more.A bonus, paid-members-only follow-up discussion available on the personal Premium podcast feed (subscribe by clicking here) will dive much deeper into all the above + online experiment platforms & how to use them to set up experiments in your firm, separating incentives from beliefs, COVID vaccines & response, Pilots versus Doctors making mistakes, and much-much more.Next week, we’ll look at corporate experimentation, crisis response, psychological safety, creativity, and more with Dawie Olivier—an established CIO and advisor to corporates & start-ups.Last week, we introduced complexity theory and set up the experimentation contexts with JP Castlin.Links to Some of Prof. Chaudhuri’s WorkWWW: https://ananishchaudhuri.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ananish-chaudhuri-571782203/Twitter: @ProfAnanishBehavioural Economics and Experiments (book, 1st edition): https://www.amazon.com/Behavioural-Economics-Experiments-Ananish-Chaudhuri/dp/0367463938/Some Other Links MentionedCould Blind Job Interviews Take on Gender Pay Pap? | NewsroomSee Great Leadership: The Obligation to Dissent (greatleadershipbydan.com) for the discussion of the concept and the suggested antidote.About Business Games Premiumhttps://www.business-games.ai/about/

Robert Sarver of the Phoenix Suns is by many accounts an arsehole—but how is this relevant to good decision making / bad decision making? | Newsletter # 4Robert Sarver of the Phoenix Suns, good decision making / bad decision making, wisdom of the crowd, diversity, and a boon from one of NZ’s top universities 😊Please, rate and review us!Go Premium Here: Business Games Subscribe (business-games.ai)

"…Only the Place You Can Charge Into With Listening"—Dawie Olivier on dealing with crises, creating emotional safety, and fostering curiosity & creativity in a large corporate.Also: full contact leadership, progressive learning mindset, reading widely, and journaling.When we talk about experimentation with Dawie Olivier—an experienced leader, CIO/CTO, and an advisory board member to several tech firms—we end up talking about biases and how to deal with them, emotional safety, curiosity… and not at all technology. Find out why one set of these concepts is much, much more important than the other.Last Episode, I did a deep dive into electronic decision markets and how they can help setting up experiments in your company.Next Episode, we dive deeper into one theme from this week's interview.Note: this is the contents of the full episode available on Business Games Premium. Public feed contains an abridged version.Subscribe by clicking here: Business Games PremiumContentsIntroduction [00:00]On Tragedies and Response [02:47]On Corporate Might and Listening Before Acting [08:35]On Strategic Effects of Crisis Response [12:57]On Corporate Experimentation, Disruption, Fear, Anxiety, Risk, and Progressive DiscoveryOn Corporate Experimentation and Anxiety [15:00]On Progressive Learning and Experimentation as Core Function of Business, Not an Add-On [16:58]On the Value of Progressive Discovery in Overcoming Fear and Biases, and in Creating Fast Learning [18:52]On Fear of Not Being in Control, and Making Bets in Ever-Changing Contexts [20:19]On Problems to Be Solved and How They Relate to the Progressive Learning Mindset [22:22]On History of Vulnerability in Leadership [27:33]On Discomfort, Safety, and Creativity [30:07]On Unlocking Curiosity and Its Role in Progressive Learning [32:19]On KPI Versus Useful Measurement and Measures [40:16]On Making Collective Decisions Around Senior Leadership Teams and Boards [46:21]On Experimentation from the Senior Leadership and Board Tables [51:10]The Homework: Read Widely and Do Journaling [54:55]Rapid-fire Questions and Concepts [57:23]Leadership BS [57:42]Map Is Not the Terrain [59:08]Gemba Technique [1:00:19]Own Work of Dawie as It Relates to Corporate Transformation and Improvement, Leadership, and Board Advisory Work [1:03:37]Links to Dawie's WorkLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dawieo/Subscribe to PremiumSubscribe by clicking here: Business Games Premium

How to deal with ambiguity: an example [18:14]. Plus: Introducing Learner's Digest, review of the Experimental Season to date [02:07], connecting everything forward and back [04:17].Topics covered: complexity, jobs to be done, problems to be solved, curiosity, predictions and experimentation—and many more.Links MentionedBusiness Games about positive ambiguity view | LinkedIn 👉 share and comment on itWhat’s Staying the Same | Farnam StreetEat Your Greens | AmazonRobert van Ossenbruggen | LinkedInBusiness Games PremiumSubscribe by clicking here: Business Games Premium