Evening Report

A View from Afar – Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning deep-dive into the United States November 5, 2024 Elections and consider the ‘what, where, how and why’ questions as they detail the rise and fall and rise of Donald John Trump and Trumpism. Background Image courtesy of Nick Minto, Copyright 2024 Nick Minto; photographed November 6, 2024, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. In this episode Paul and Selwyn discuss: Why Democrats Lost: Incumbency, Elitism, Class & Alienation, Identity Politics… Why Trump Won: Anti-Establishment, Populism, Avatar for the Alienated… What to Expect Next: Trump Appointments, Isolationism, Geopolitical Impact & Response… INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage interaction while live, and encourage their audience to lodge comments and questions. Please subscribe to our YouTube channel and click on notification-bell for an alert for future programmes. Here’s the link: https://www.youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Backgroun

A View from Afar – In this episode of A View From Afar political scientist Paul Buchanan and host Selwyn Manning analyse how the state of Israel has gone rogue, attacking United Nations peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. At this juncture it is clear this is an intentional attack. https://eveningreport.nz/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/AVFA_S05_E10.m4a Over the past week Israel Defense Force troops have repeatedly attacked UN peacekeepers who were authorised and deployed to the region by the United Nations Security Council. Also last week; the Government of Israel issued a statement notifying the United Nations Secretary General that he was now banned from Israel and was persona non grata. Within a day of that statement, IDF troops had fired on UN peacekeeping positions in Southern Lebanon. Since then, the IDF has continued operations that threaten the UN’s presence. And Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now issued a directive to the UN peacekeeping force to withdraw fro

Podcast: A View From Afar with Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning. In this episode of A View from Afar political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst, Paul G. Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss: The Murky World of Israel’s Booby-Trapped Pagers and Walkie-Talkies. Paul and Selwyn reveal Israel’s long-form planning that led to it sabotaging hand-held communication devices that Hezbollah used to communicate with. This episode’s questions include: Who was behind the manufacturing of the booby-trapped devices? How long has Israel been planning last week’s attack – an attack that saw thousands injured and many killed in Lebanon after Israel remotely pulled the virtual-pin and exploded the devices indiscriminantly? And why now? Presumably the devices were also programmed to be tracked. So why did Israel decide to abandon tracking Hezbollah and to attack? Was it to cause chaos among its enemies in a preemptive move immediately prior to its widespread bombing and ta

Podcast: A View from Afar with Paul G Buchanan and Selwyn Manning. Building upon recent episodes of A View from Afar, Political Scientist Paul G Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss The Politics of Desperation. This episode flows on from our discussions about long transitions and the moment of friction. As the old status quo begins to crumble (under the weight of fraction), political leaders and elites invested in it get increasingly desperate, leading to more dangerous decisions, more acute moments, and, increased chances of mistake, miscalculation and unanticipated backlash. The Politics of Desperation accentuates an ongoing downward spiral. And, the Politics of Desperation takes form in differing degrees. For some, the risk of losing is merely a dent in the leader’s ego, reputation, and an awakening that voters have moved on from their style of politics. But for others, a loss will prove to be devastating, for example; should Donald Trump lose his bid to regain the

In this episode of A View from Afar political scientist and former Pentagon Analyst, Paul G. Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss, debate, and assess whether deterrence is still a valid concept in international relations. Paul and Selwyn assess whether deterrence has failed in Syria, Ukraine, the Middle East, and failed to stop an intensification of threat in the South China Sea. And they consider the question: Is nuclear deterrence dead in the water? But, overnight, the New York Times released details of a secret new nuclear deterrence plan that has been advanced in secret by the Biden Administration. Biden’s Nuke Plan is designed to ensure the USA stays ahead of an arms race, and a supposed coordination of nuclear weapons technologies being developed by China, North Korea and Russia. New questions arise. Does a new-generation arms race, led by the United States, based on advanced nuclear weaponry, made more fearsome due to a rapid advance of artificial intel

The Trump Assassination Attempt, Security Failures, The Politics and What Happens Next? – Firstly, in this episode of A View from Afar, political scientist and former Pentagon analyst, Dr Paul Buchanan, provides us a preliminary assessment of the assassination attempt on former United States president Donald Trump. And then Paul and Selwyn assess what impact this crime will have on the US Presidential election campaign. At this juncture, it’s important to be clear, to achieve a robust analysis of the crime that occurred while Trump was speaking at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, it will require a thorough assessment of eye witness accounts, details of the supposed gunman, his background, associations, potential motivations – and importantly a deep assessment of the role of the security agencies. To determine a clear and probable account of what happened in Pennsylvania this weekend, we would need all of that information, and then to apply it against any variances and/or

Post-pandemic economics and the rise of national populism – Wherever we look today, whether it be through a political, economic, or security lens, we can see the consequences of post-pandemic economic instability. And politically, the rise of national populism is in evidence, as is an apparent anti-incumbent mood among voters. In this podcast, Paul G Buchanan and Selwyn Manning assess the global Zeitgeist and what impact post-pandemic economics is having on geopolitics and geo-economics. INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments. To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Remember to subscribe to the channel. For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below: Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Facebook.com/selwyn.manning Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning RECOGNIT

Today, political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine: At a micro level, how ‘Post-Colonial Blowback’ has impacted on New Caledonia, Gaza, South Africa, India and even New Zealand. And at a macro level, Paul and Selwyn assess how ‘Post-Colonial Blowback’ is a power giving rise to the Global South and its worldwide influence in global geopolitics. INTERACTION: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments. To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Remember to subscribe to the channel. For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on one of the social media channels below: Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Facebook.com/selwyn.manning Twitter.com/Selwyn_Manning RECOGNITION: The MIL Network’s podcast A View from Afar was Nominated as a Top Defence Security Podcast by Threat.Technology – a London-ba

This episode of A View from Afar podcast was recorded live from 12:45pm May 20, 2024 (NZST). Political scientist Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine: The United States and how the world is engaging with it geopolitically. Specifically, Paul and Selwyn analyse what has changed in this regard in 2024, and consider whether some leaders of global, regional, and even small powers are preparing for the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency. And, importantly, at this juncture, they assess whether some leaders who are central to conflict in the world today, regard the Biden Administration as having entered a lame-duck period. INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments. To interact during a live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Remember to subscribe to the channel. For the on-demand audience, you can also keep the conversation going on this debate by clicking on o

This episode of A View From Afar was recorded LIVE on May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, May 5, 2024 at 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment of world affairs. Paul wrote of a decisive moment of transition for the world’s contrasting and conflicting powers, and stated that 2024 is significant; “… because it is the period where force has become the major arbiter of who rises and who falls in the systemic transitional shuffle.” So in this podcast, the first episode of A View from Afar, Series 5, Paul and Selwyn focus on this writing, and take listeners on a journey through this example of strategic study, a discussion that will help us to place a context to the world, as we are currently experiencing it. (Ref. https://www.kiwipolitico.com/2024/04/a-moment-of-friction/ ) Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions

The LIVE Recording of A View from Afar podcast was produced at midday Thurs December 21, 2023 (NZST) and Wednesday December 20, 8pm (USEDST). In this the twelfth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning note and discuss some of the big world events that have occurred and are occurring in 2023. And in particular, Paul and Selwyn discuss the rise of the Global South; evaluate the the wars that continue to rage in Ukraine and Gaza; and tensions in the South China Sea. Plus they note, with particular reference the trends that will become prominent in 2024, including the decline of Western democracies and a rightward turn in many places (including in Argentina and New Zealand in their respective 2023 elections). INTERACTION WHILE LIVE: Paul and Selwyn encourage their live audience to interact while they are live with questions and comments. To interact during the live recording of this podcast, go to Youtube.com/c/EveningReport/ Remember

A View from Afar, by Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning. In this the eleventh episode of A View from Afar for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning examine how the post-World War II liberal internationalist system is being challenged by a fluid constellation of global and regional powers to influence the shape of an emerging new world order. And Paul and Selwyn also assess how this massive shift in geopolitic demarcations is forming, relatively quickly, into a world of bipolarity where on one side we have a multipolar constellation of states, and on the other the traditional western liberal democracies. The catalyst behind this rapidly forming bipolarity is conflict. And, most recently, it is clear, that the Israel-Hamas war – and the atrocities committed initially by Hamas and more lately by Israel forces – is driving the world toward a transitional moment. It appears, that what is emerging from the current multipolar system – and think here th

In this the tenth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and journalist/analyst Selwyn Manning examine the current Israel-Palestine Atrocities. As we prepared for this podcast, representatives of Arab states have presented a united front at the United Nations, criticising the UN Security Council of doing nothing to protect civilians from Israeli bombing and missile attacks on Gazan civilians and locations. Since then, the UN Security Council has considered two resolutions, the latter calling for a pause in hostilities to allow a humanitarian effort to enter Gaza to assist civilians. The United States vetoed that Security Council resolution. Al Jazera has detailed that Israel forces have targeted and bombed civilian facilities include Hospitals, schools, residential areas resulting in the deaths of thousands of people, civilians, – around one-third of the deaths are children. It remains contested by all sides in this conflict as to who,

In this the ninth episode of A View from Afar for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning examine why there is a trend toward military dictatorships in North Africa. And, in particular, Paul and Selwyn analyse the reasons why countries like Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea have all become part of a challenge to a weakened western-led global order. In this podcast, Paul and Selwyn examine why events in North Africa are connected to authoritarian multipolarity, a realignment of global power that favours the Russian Federation’s Putin regime. And, within this context, Paul and Selwyn address the complexities of Russian Federation involvement in the African continent – involvement that includes the notorious Wagner mercenary group; Russian state controlled energy giants like Gazprom that act as envoys of the Kremlin; and how Western powers appear unable to address geopolitical and terrorist-caused instability in the region. The Quest

In this the eighth episode of A View from Afar for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine the risks of a 21st century nuclear war. The movie Oppenheimer has renewed interest in the dawn of the nuclear era. Almost 80 years later, are we safer from nuclear war than we were in the years immediately after 1945? The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moved its Doomsday Clock hand to 90 seconds before midnight, the highest threat level since the Cuban Missile Crisis.What does that say about contemporary international security affairs? No new nuclear arms limitation agreements have been signed in over a decade, several have lapsed and most nuclear armed countries are not signatories to them anyway. Countries like China are rapidly expanding their arsenals and others like North Korea and Iran are seeking to join the nuclear armed club. Has nuclear arms control failed? What is the future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? Although conventions against the use of chemical

In this the seventh episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine the strengths and weaknesses of democracy around the world. In particular Paul and Selwyn consider how and why democracy in many countries around the world is on the slide. They examine the causes of democratic backsliding and also test why the erosion of high democratic ideas have, in many cases, popular support. First, Paul offers a context, and defines democratic backsliding. He identifies the countries that are decisively eroding their own democracies of principles that were once embraced by both power elites and citizenry. The Questions include: Why are we seeing more democratic backsliding in recent times? Is it just a political phenomenon or does it extend beyond the political sphere? Where has democratic backsliding been most evident? What do Chile, Guatemala, Israel and Thailand have in common when it comes to backsliding? What is occurring in the

In this the sixth episode of A View from Afar for 2023 political scientist Dr Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning present a two-part episode to analyse what to make of New Zealand Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins’ bilateral meetings with People’s Republic of China’s President Xi JinPing and other leaders of the PRC. In part one, Paul and Selwyn also consider how the PRC-NZ trade relationship is seen in the eyes of New Zealand’s security partners. Then, in the second half of today’s podcast, Paul and Selwyn analyse the most recent events in Russia – events that have taken shape since Wagner Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin’s pronounced intent to mobilise his mercenaries against the Russian Federation’s top two military heads, and, while doing so, pronounced that the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine was based on falsehoods. What should we expect next? What is the real state of Putinism? What do the political and power elites in Russia make of President Vladimir Put

In this episode of A View from Afar Paul G. Buchanan and Selwyn Manning examine how a real war of global proportions has been waged to shape opinions. Paul and Selwyn deep dive into the battle to control a narrative, waged by all sides in a polarised combative world, and how modern mainstream media institutions, like Radio New Zealand, fall vulnerable in the absence of robust all-sides-considered analysis and debate. In this episode, Paul and Selwyn analyse how fourth Estate bias, propaganda, and conflict-force fact-vacuums are the challenge of our times in this disinformation age. Upon this context, Paul and Selwyn consider: * Why Is the Radio New Zealand sub-editor pro-RU-content debacle symptomatic of a fact-vacuum environment? * Why is all media vulnerable to disinformation in the absence of robust NATO-Ukraine-Russia analysis? * What are the unspoken of ‘big picture’ shifts in Russian Federation / Global South relations? LINKS and REFERENCES: https://KiwiPolitico.com https://ww

A View from Afar: In this episode political scientist, and former Pentagon analyst, Dr Paul Buchanan, and Selwyn Manning analyse the question: What does the Geopolitical balancing that is taking place in the West and South-West Pacific mean for the region and the globe? Analysis: Paul and Selwyn consider the question from several angles, and provide a context to the headlines that suggest both global powers, the USA and the Peoples Republic of China, are on a collision-course toward conflict. Paul takes us through the US-PNG and Japan-NZ bilateral security/military agreements as a balancing response to the PRC-Solomons security agreement. In addition, Paul considers the question: Does the PRC have legitimate interests in the Pacific and, as a great power, should those interests be understood and respected? Selwyn considers whether China’s ascendancy as a global power threatens the United States’ position as the perceived ‘preeminent defender’ of the Global Order? And Selwyn raises fo

PODCAST: In this the second episode of A View from Afar podcast for 2023, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning analyse the question: How stable is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s regime? PAUL AND SELWYN look at this question from a number of angles, and, reveal shifts within the regime’s control and structure that may surprise many in the West. In this episode Paul deep dives into the dynamics between the mercenary Wagner Group’s commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, his relationship with Putin, the Kremlin, and the estrangement from Russia’s military generals and Putin appointees. Paul and Selwyn consider: What is going on here? What is Prigozhin’s end-game? Does he have the support of Putin? Or is that support conditional on successes on the Ukraine conflict frontline? And Selwyn digs into the pillars of power in the Russian Federation, in particular: Putin as the head of Russia’s personalised autocracy The Putin-era Oligarchs Russia’s State military And t