The Weekend Intelligence: Presidents, precedents and probability

It’s a week and a half until Americans go to the polls. Early voting has begun in several states and it’s on a knife edge. But, for the first time in two months, our in-house forecast model has Donald Trump in the lead, winning 54 in 100 simulated elections. Election models can and do get things wrong, see: the United States presidential election in 2016. So how can we be sure that ours is accurate?

Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—Subscribe to Economist Podcasts+

For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.